10: IRAN IN THE CROSSHAIRS
1. For details of Iran's WMD and ballistic missile capabilities, see the "Iran Profile" of the Nuclear Threat Initiative at www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/ind
York: Routledge, 2005); and Uzi Rubin, "The Global Reach of Iran's Ballistic Missiles," Memorandum no. 86 (Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies, November 2006).
2. "Iranian President at Tehran Conference: Very Soon, This Stain of Disgrace [i.e., Israel] Will Be Purged from the Center of the Islamic World—and This Is Attainable." Middle East Media Research Institute, Special Dispatch Series no. 1013, October 28, 2005. For a more detailed discussion of the translation of Ahmadinejad's speech, see note 88 in Chapter 3.
3. The two best indicators of potential military power are population size and wealth, though a country's actual military capability depends on how efficiently it translates these assets into skilled and well-equipped military forces. Iran has a substantially larger population and considerably more wealth than Iraq, its nearest competitor in the Persian Gulf region. For example, Iran had about a 3:1 advantage in population over Iraq in 1989 (54.5 versus 17.6 million), and about a 2.4:1 advantage in 2006 (65 versus 26.8 million). U.S. Census Bureau, "International Data Base," Updated August 24, 2006. Using GDP as an indicator of wealth, Iran had a 4:1 advantage in 1985 (179.8 versus US$44.2 billion) and a 3.9:1 advantage in 2000 (101 versus US$25.9 billion). World Bank, "Country at a Glance" (Iran and Iraq), August 13, 2006; and World Bank Group, "World Development Indicators Database," Iran Data Profile and Iraq Data Profile, April 2006.
4. This is the title of an article byAlissa J. Rubin in the Los Angeles Times, December 10, 2006. Also see Geoffrey Kemp, "Iran and Iraq: The Shia Connection, Soft Power, and the Nuclear Factor," Special Report 156 (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace, November 2005); "Iran Grows Strong, the World Yawns," Ha'aretz editorial, December 13, 2006; Liz Sly, "Iranian Influence Soaring in Iraq," Chicago Tribune, March 8, 2007; Megan K. Stack and Bor-zou Daragahi, "Iran Was on Edge; Now It's on Top," Los Angeles Times, February 18, 2006; and Edward Wong, "Iran Is in Strong Position to Steer Iraq's Political Future," New York Times, July 3, 2004.
5. Quoted in Trita Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations 1970-2001: Ideological Calculus or Strategic Rivalry?" (PhD diss., Johns Hopkins University, April 2006), 413, also 159-62, 262-63, 275-76, 300-301, 392-93, 406-11. Also see Trita Parsi, "Israel and the Origins of Iran's Arab Option: Dissection of a Strategy Misunderstood," Middle East Journal 60, no. 3 (Summer 2006); and Trita Parsi, "The Geo-Strategic Roots of the Israeli-Iranian Enmity," Heartland-Eurasian Review of Geopolitics 4 (Summer 2005).
6. Bernard Lewis, "August 22: Does Iran Have Something in Store?" Wall Street Journal, August 8, 2006.
7. For a careful and convincing analysis that deterrence would work against a nuclear Iran, see Barry R. Posen, "A Nuclear Armed Iran: A Difficult but Not Impossible Policy Problem" (Washington, DC: Century Foundation, 2006); and Barry R. Posen, "We Can Live with a Nuclear Iran," New York Times, February 27, 2006. French President Jacques Chirac made this point in January 2007 but had to quickly retract his remarks because it is politically incorrect in the West to say that a nuclear Iran could be deterred. See Elaine Sciolino and Katrin Bennhold, "Chirac Strays from Assailing a Nuclear Iran," NewYork Times, February 1, 2007.
8. Ray Takeyh, "Iran's Nuclear Calculations," World Policy Journal 20, no. 2 (Summer 2003).
9. After all, this is what Iraq did after the Israelis eliminated its nascent nuclear capability in 1981. See Dan Reiter, "Preventive Attacks Against Nuclear Programs and the 'Success' at Osiraq," Nonproliferation Review 12, no. 2 (July 2005).
10. Zbigniew Brzezinski, "Do Not Attack Iran," International Herald Tribune, April 26, 2006; James Fallows, "Will Iran Be Next?" Atlantic, December 2004; and Michael J. Mazarr, "Strike Out: Attacking Iran Is a Bad Idea," New Republic, August 15, 2005.
11. Michael Smith and Sarah Baxter, "US Generals 'Will Quit' if Bush Orders Iran Attack," Sunday Times (London), February 25, 2007.
12. Parsi, "Israel-Iranian Relations," 285-97, 354-61, 400-401; and Gary Sick, "The Clouded Mirror: The United States and Iran, 1979-1999," in ed. John L. Esposito and R. K. Ra-mazani, Iran at the Crossroads (NewYork: Palgrave, 2001), 204.
13. David Hoffman, "Israel Seeking to Convince U.S. That West Is Threatened by Iran," Wash-
ington Post, March 13, 1993.
14. Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relatons," 402. For elaboration on Israels influence on the formula-
tion of dual containment, see ibid., 297-99; and Kenneth M. Pollack, The Persian Puzzle:
The Conflict Between Iran and America (NewYork: Random House, 2004), 261-65.
15. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, 269.
16. For the official line on dual containment, see Martin Indyk, "The Clinton Administration's
Approach to the Middle East," speech to Soref Symposium, Washington Institute for Near
East Policy, May 18, 1993. Also see Sick, "Clouded Mirror," 198-99, 209nl3.
17. Regarding Rafsanjani's efforts to reach out to the United States, see Ali M. Ansari, Con-
fronting Iran: The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great Crisis in the Middle
East (NewYork: Perseus Books, 2006), 115-46; Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations," 257-66;
Pollack, Persian Puzzle, chaps. 9-10; and R. K. Ramazani, "Reflections on Iran's Foreign Pol-
icy: Defining the 'National Interests,'" in Esposito and Ramazani, Iran at the Crossroads,
217-22.
18. Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations," 298-99. Useful critiques of dual containment include F.
Gregory Gause III, "The Illogic of Dual Containment," Foreign Affairs 73, no. 2 (March/
April 1994); and Barbara Conry, "America's Misguided Policy of Dual Containment in the
Persian Gulf," Foreign Policy Briefing no. 33 (Washington, DC: Cato Institute, November
10, 1994).
19. Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft, Differentiated Containment: U.S. Policy Toward Iran and Iraq, report of an Independent Study Group on Gulf Stability and Security (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1997), 5-32; and Gary Sick, "Rethinking Dual Containment," Survival 40, no. 1 (Spring 1998).
20. Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations," 304-305; and Pollack, Persian Puzzle, 269-70.
21. Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations," 305.
22. Pollack quoted in ibid., 308. Pollack reportedly added that the Clinton administration "only saw Iran through the prism of Tehran's attitude towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict." Quoted in ibid., 309.
23. AIPAC, "Comprehensive U.S. Sanctions Against Iran: A Plan for Action," Washington, DC, April 2, 1995.
24. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, 270-71.
25. The following discussion of the Conoco case and the various sanctions imposed on Iran by the Clinton administration is based on Sasan Fayazmanesh, "The Politics of the U.S. Economic Sanctions Against Iran," Review of Radical Political Economics 35, no. 3 (Summer 2003); Herman Franssen and Elaine Morton, "A Review of US Unilateral Sanctions Against Iran," Middle East Economic Survey 45, no. 34 (August 26, 2002); Dilip Hiro, Neighbors Not Friends: Iraq and Iran After the Gulf Wars (NewYork: Routledge, 2001), chap. 9; Kenneth Katzman, "The Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA)," CRS Report for Congress, Congressional Research Service, October 11, 2006; Laurie Lande, "Second Thoughts," International Economy 11, no. 3 (May/June 1997); Pollack, Persian Puzzle, chaps. 9-10; and Sick, "Clouded Mirror," 198-207.
26. "Remarks at the World Jewish Congress Dinner in New York City—President Bill Clinton Speech—Transcript," April 30, 1995, www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2889/i
27. Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations," 310.
28. Executive Order 12959, White House, Office of the Press Secretary, May 8, 1995.
29. Todd Purdum, "Clinton to Order a Trade Embargo Against Tehran," New York Times, May 1, 1995; and "Remarks at the World Jewish Congress."
30. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, 273.
31. Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations," 308, 311, 329-30.
32. A. M. Rosenthal, "Plugging the Leak," New York Times, March 14, 1995.
33. Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations," 312. An AIPAC official, according to another source, claimed that Congress wrote the legislation "with us sentence by sentence." Franssen and Morton, "Review of US Unilateral Sanctions." Also see George Moffett, "Push to Widen Libya Sanctions Riles US Allies," Christian Science Monitor, January 24, 1996.
34. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, 287.
35. Quoted in Brzezinski and Scowcroft, Differentiated Containment, 6.
36. James Schlesinger, "Fragmentation and Hubris: A Shaky Basis for American Leadership," National Interest 49 (Fall 1997): 5.
37. Fayazmanesh, "Politics of the U.S. Economic Sanctions," 231-35.
38. Reuters, "Call for 'Detente' as Tehran Swears in a Moderate President," Australian, August 5, 1997; Douglas Jehl, "Iranian President Calls for Opening Dialogue with U.S.," New York Times, December 15, 1997; and "Transcript of Interview with Iranian President Mohammad Khatami," CNN.com, January 7, 1998.
39. "Interview with Khatami"; and Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations," 330-36.
40. On the Clinton administration checking with the Israelis, see Pollack, Persian Puzzle, 319. For a more general discussion of the steps the Clinton administration took in response to Khatami's overtures, see Hiro, Neighbors, chap. 10; Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations," 331-45; Pollack, Persian Puzzle, 319-42; and Sick, "Clouded Mirror," 200-206.
41. Quoted in Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations," 329.
42. Ansari, Confronting Iran, chap. 5; Hiro, Neighbors, 235-40; Pollack, Persian Puzzle, 325-42; and Ray Takeyh, Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic (New York: Henry Holt, 2006), 44-54, 110-16.
43. Yerah Tal, "U.S., Iran in Secret Talks," Ha'aretz, December 15, 1997.
44. Sick, "Clouded Mirror," 210n32.
45. Eli Lake, "Israel, U.S. Jewish Lobby Disagree on Iran Sanctions," United Press International, September 23, 2000.
46. Quoted in Parsi, "Israeli-Iranian Relations," 298.
47. Quoted in ibid., 403. During the early 1990s, Sneh played a key role in making the case that Iran was a deadly threat to Israel. See ibid., 286.
48. Quoted in Alan Sipress, "Israel Emphasizes Iranian Threat," Washington Post, February 7, 2002. This article, which was written as Sharon was arriving in Washington, makes clear that Jerusalem was "redoubling efforts to warn the Bush administration that Iran poses a greater threat than the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein." Also see Seymour M. Hersh, "The Iran Game," New Yorker, December 3, 2001; Peter Hirschberg, "Background: Peres Raises Iranian Threat," Ha'aretz, February 5, 2002; David Hirst, "Israel Thrusts Iran in Line of US Fire," Guardian, February 2, 2002; "Israel Once Again Sees Iran as a Cause for Concern," Ha'aretz, May 7, 2001; Dana Priest, "Iran's Emerging Nuclear Plant Poses Test for U.S.," Washington Post, July 29, 2002; and Ze'ev Schiff, "Iran: Clear and Present Danger," Ha'aretz, May 31, 2002.
49. Stephen Farrell, Robert Thomson, and Danielle Haas, "Attack Iran the Day Iraq War Ends, Demands Israel," Times (London), November 5, 2002; and Stephen Farrell and Robert Thomson, "The Times Interview with Ariel Sharon," ibid.
50. Quoted in "Ambassador to U.S. Calls for 'Regime Change' in Iran, Syria," Ha'aretz, April 28, 2003.
51. Steven R. Weisman, "New U.S. Concerns on Iran's Pursuit of Nuclear Arms," New York Times, May 8, 2003.
52. Shimon Peres, "We Must Unite to Prevent an Ayatollah Nuke," Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2003.
53. Jim Lobe, "US Neo-Cons Move Quickly on Iran," Inter Press Service, May 27, 2003.
54. Marc Perelman, "Pentagon Team on Iran Comes Under Fire," Forward, June 6, 2003. Also see Marc Perelman, "White House Is Aiming to Raise Iranian Nukes at U.N. Security Council," Forward, May 9, 2003; and Marc Perelman, "New Front Sets Sights on Toppling Iran Regime," Forward, May 16, 2003.
55. William Kristol, "The End of the Beginning," Weekly Standard, May 12, 2003.
56. Michael Ledeen, "The Others," National Review Online, April 4, 2003. Ledeen also wrote
in mid-April 2003 that "it is impossible to win the war on terrorism so long as the regimes
in Syria and Iran remain in power." He went on to say that "the good news is that both are
vulnerable to political attack." Quoted in Ronald Brownstein, "Those Who Sought War Are
Now Pushing Peace," Los Angeles Times, April17, 2003. Also see Alex Koppelman, "Iranian
Regime Change: 'Faster, Please!'" Salon.com, January 15, 2007.
57. Daniel Pipes and Patrick Clawson, "Turn Up the Pressure on Iran," Jerusalem Post, May 21,
2003; and Lawrence Kaplan, "Iranamok," New Republic, June 9, 2003.
58. A copy of the flyer advertising the conference, which was titled "The Future of Iran: Mul-lahcracy, Democracy, and the War on Terror," can be found at www.aei.org/events/eventID .300/event_detail.asp. Also see Jordan Green, "Neocons Dream of Lebanon," ZNet (online), July 23, 2003; and Lobe, "Neo-Cons Move Quickly."
59. Connie Bruck, "Exiles: How Iran's Expatriates Are Gaming the Nuclear Threat," New Yorker, March 6, 2006; Lobe, "Neo-Cons Move Quickly"; Ron Perelman, "New Front Sets Sights on Toppling Iran Regime," Forward, May 17, 2003; and "Shah of Iran's Heir Plans Overthrow of Regime," Human Events (online), May 1, 2006.
60. All information is from "Senator Brownback Announces Iran Democracy Act with Iranian Exiles," press release from the National Iranian American Council, May 20, 2003; and "Iran Democracy Act Passed, but No Money to Opposition and Satellite TVs," press release from the National Iranian American Council, July 24, 2003.
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